One of Tim Haslett's papers, "Reflections on SD Practice" (from the 2007 ANZSYS conference; published in 2009 as Systemic Development: Local Solutions in a Global Environment, ed. James Sheffield) makes several key points about pitfalls and challenges in applying mathematical modeling to real-world decision challenges:

• SD is inherently difficult to understand and the explanations more difficult – "The theoretical foundations of System Dynamics are at once the greatest strength and the greatest weakness for our discipline. ... The great power to be able to analyse systems in terms of positive and negative feedback systems rests in the fact that the results of the analysis are often counterintuitive and provides insights that have not previously been possible. The difficulty is that the results of SD analysis can often be at odds with the thinking of managers and decision-makers whose mental processes are essentially linear. Our failure to help a client understand these and other principles of SD modelling can have disastrous consequences.... "
• The problem of counter-intuitive outcomes – "... Clients can be swept up by enthusiasm for a technique that has the potential to make the implications of policy decisions clear, but this is often supported by the hope that it will provide a justification for current policy. ... Given that many organizations do not have an inbuilt capability for Systems Thinking and consequently an understanding of the impact of feedback, it is highly likely that some of the results of modelling exercises will run contrary to the accepted wisdom within the organization. ..."
• The problem of the short-term v long term – "By its very nature, SD modelling addresses problems that have a long-term and strategic focus for the organization. Many organizations have difficulty integrating long-term and strategic information into their decision-making. ... It is a truism that structures determine system behaviour. It is equally true that the heroic efforts of individuals can overcome the influence of counter-productive structures in the short term. It is the heroism of individuals that often stands in the way of long-term strategic thinking. ..."
• Internal sponsorship and the rich and famous – "... In every consulting assignment, someone must become rich and famous. It is important to have a very clear understanding of who those people will be. It is the project sponsor, the approver of budgets, who must become pre-eminently famous. The consultant becomes rich but never famous. To achieve their fame, the project sponsor must be in a position to demonstrate the progress, efficacy or importance of the project. They must be brought up to speed about the nature the SD modelling and provided with enough information to be able to speak formally and informally about the benefits of the project. In doing, this they become famous. ..."
• The pragmatics of SD modelling – "... role that our work plays in organizations. At best, we can be a catalyst for change by providing information for the decision-makers who must ultimately take responsibility for the change. We can provide little information about the way to initiate, implement or evaluate the change. The criteria for our work must be that we are able to provide information that allows responsible managers to make informed choices about the changes in their organization. ..."

... thoughtful and important issues to be aware of in real-world situations!

^z - 2023-04-30